Election Postponement for Economic Stability

I have generally not in the last several months, since even before my bout of coronavirus, commented on the current political issue since there seems no prospect of productive reform. But I made an exception recently when the Courts gave leave to appeal with regard to the issue of the postponement of elections, and it is with regard to that seminal concern that I once more thought it worth dragging myself back to the present.

For I have been following with some concern recent reports that suggest elections might be postponed so that what is now presented as a promising economic situation will not be adversely affected. 
   
The first was an account of a speech by Indrajith Coomaraswamy. He was to deny that it included a suggestion that elections should be postponed, but it was interpreted as such by two very bright journalists, including the Indian Sathiyamoorthy.

I was saddened that it was Indrajith Coomaraswamy who had set the ball rolling as it were, though I would like to think that was not deliberate. He is an old friend, who spent a memorable Christmas with me at Oxford way back in 1977, and since then he has also seemed both decent and indubitably devoted to Sri Lanka.

Indrajith’s comments were followed by a suggestion by Vajira Abeywardena, the sole representative of the President’s party in Parliament, that funds might not be made available for elections next year.

I read two articles on the subject of his comments, one by Dayan Jayatilleka and the other by the knowledgeable Sathiyamoorthy. Dayan had engaged in a comprehensive critique of the economic philosophy Indrajith had expressed in the speech in which he had spoken of the possible danger to economic stability that elections presented, and I did not think I should ask Indrajith about what a minor element in the article.

Reassuring response

That was very worrying and given my high regard for Indrajith’s integrity, I thought I should seek clarification. His answer was reassuring, though I felt there was more he could do if only to make it clear that he puts the interests of the country.

Sathiyamoorthy’s bald assertion that he is one of ‘two men identified with Wickremesinghe’ is not something a self-respecting man should allow to pass unchallenged.

What Indrajith said to me, which was pleasing:

Let me indicate at the outset that I would under no circumstances say that the Constitution should be violated.

What I did say was that fiscal discipline should not be lost in the lead-up to any election, as has happened time and again in the past under multiple Governments.

I said that we should not allow elections to distract us in the way they have done in the past i.e. disciplined macroeconomic policies should be maintained. I did not say, or even mean to imply that elections should be postponed.

But though that was satisfying it was even better when he issued a disclaimer which the Financial Times published. He had also responded to Sathiyamoorthy who, though he could not publish a disclaimer, did ensure that an amended version of the original article appeared, making it clear that Indrajith did not advocate postponing elections.

Addressing key issues

But while these two have done what they can to set the record right, I thought I should also say something more myself, given how serious the situation is.

For on looking further at the original report of the speech, I was struck by something Dayan Jayatilleka had highlighted in his comments, viz “We’re supposed to be having elections next year.’

With his usual perspicacity as to language use, Dayan notes that there should be no question of ‘supposed to’. Indrajith should have from the start made it clear that there will be elections next year while making his point that we should not be distracted from disciplined macroeconomic policies.

At the same time, it occurred to me that Indrajith should not too have spoken in a way that suggested all was well with what the Government was doing. Recent reports highlight what takes away from what Indrajith suggests, and if this is because he is concerned only about what might be termed macroeconomic policies, that is to forget that the country, and in particular the worse off, want discipline at all levels, not just discipline that affects them adversely.

This need is apparent from a couple of recent reports. For instance, the Sectoral Oversight Committee on National Economic and Physical Plans of Parliament has declared that ‘Inefficiency and corruption drain state coffers of Rs. 500 billion’, and it sets this in the context of the IMF Mission reporting that ‘revenue mobilization gains… are expected to fall short of initial projections by nearly 15 per cent by year-end.’

Unfortunately, the distinguished economists who have jumped in to talk about an improving situation in a way that can be interpreted as suggesting elections should perhaps be put off have not bothered to talk about the need for fiscal discipline as far as Government expenditure is concerned.

We are oppressed by those who do not want to rock the boat and others who want to punish their opponents.
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